Some Morning Reading
Just got done watching Netherlands versus Puerto Rico and was disappointed that the Dutch couldn’t pull out another huge upset…I think Puerto Rico would have gone into mourning had they lost to the Netherlands tonight. Nonetheless, the Dutch played really well all things considered and let’s not forget that they’re not eliminated yet…although they get to play a Dominican Republic team that will probably want revenge and will do whatever it takes to pulverize the Dutch. But even if they do win by mercy rule, it won’t be as meaningful as when they lost because all the odds said they should have won to begin with.
Case of the Mondays? How About Some Baseball!
After a somewhat relaxing weekend studying and watching plenty of WBC baseball, I’m back at work with a case of the Mondays. Of course I get the Mondays every Monday so that’s nothing new.
I always lose my productivity after lunch and get it back just about when I’m ready to go home for the day. Somewhere in those 3-4 hours I take a break and do some baseball reading. Today, I perused some sources earlier in the day and thought I would share so you can have something to do at 3 PM when all you want to do is go home and take a nap.
Below is a post at WaPo’s Baseball Insider Blog about the declining attendance at pro sports during the recession and what baseball might do about it. I’m always game for posts or articles mixing economics and sports.
Danimal
Sorry it’s been silent here for the past four days. This week has just been brutal and finding time for a good post has been tough. Nonetheless, things are breaking up a little bit going into the weekend and maybe next week I’ll do better about posting once or twice during the workweek.
The World Baseball Classic began yesterday, although the games were televised from Japan, which doesn’t really jive with my work schedule seeing as how I think they were on at like 5AM or something. Japan v. Korea is on tomorrow morning at 5AM, and I am sorely tempted to get up for it…but then again I do have TiVO. Something about seeing it live though that makes it great, at least for sporting events. Even though I don’t have the highest expectations for the US team (let’s face it, the Japanese, Cubans and Dominicans are probably better than us and the Mexicans, Venzuelans and Panamanians could definitely beat us too), I am really focused on seeing some awesome baseball by international teams. Japan is my favorite because they’re so intense during the game, but so happy afterward. The Japanese LOVE their baseball too, which I respect. Literally, people go from their offices to the bar and watch baseball until 10 or 11 PM and then go home after their team plays.If you want to see Japanese going nuts over baseball (and can’t afford to go to Japan) check out the No Reservations with Anthony Bourdain episode where he goes to Osaka. It’s on the Travel Channel.
Anyway, a lot has been written or said about the wisdom in the Nats’ signing Daniel Cabrera in the offseason. However, at this point in the franchise’s development, taking fliers on guys like Cabrera is what can really open the club up to some talent. Cabrera was one of Jim Bowden’s final signings and has the hallmarks of a Bowden target: tumultuous past with another club, huge potential upside, possible character issues, largely written off by “the establishment.” Manny is definitely a big supporter of the guy and sees something in him. Whether that has anything to do with both guys being from the D.R. or not, I don’t know. But if you check out my video that I took of Manny talking about Cabrera at NatsFest back in January, I think you’ll get a vibe, as I did, that he sees more in Cabrera than just a countryman in need of a break. I think he sees some real potential to Cabrera to develop into a half-decent workhorse if he can iron out his mechanics, tame his temper and mitigate the effects of his physical awkwardness.
Boz is finally going to start posting on Nationals Journal and his first lengthy post was today on none other than one Daniel “Danimal” Cabrera. And yes, just like I refer to Smiley Gonzalez/myster player from the D.R. as Frowny, I will refer to Cabrera from now on as Danimal. It just sounds more accpeting, like a nickname you’d ahve some guy in your frat or something.
OK, so click here to read Boz’s post on Danimal. It’s very good and mirrors my feelings on the guy. I’m generally positive on Danimal and really hope he can become a nice addition to the rotation in some capacity.
On a final note, I am debating whether I want to either purchasean Orioles Partial Season Ticket plan for myself. I’m not an O’s fan by any means, but they have a plan where you can see every home game on Sunday afternoons for the entire season, which is about two games a month. I’d just get one ticket for myself in the Upper Reserve section. It would be cheaper than buying 13 separate tickets, of course, and I could exchange my tickets throughout the season as needed. My parents have offered to make that my early birthday present, which is also tempting. Taking two Sunday afternoon’s a month to watch baseball would be a treat, plus you get all the same perks as a Full Season ticket holder, which isn’t bad. If I lived in Washington, I’d have already gotten my Nationals season tickets, obviously. But going to DC all those times from Baltimore would just not be economical, unfortunately.
I ahve some time to think it over, as the O’s are having Tag Day next Saturday. Tag Day is where you go to the park and actually pick your season ticket seat(s) and get to see where you’ll be sitting, etc. I need to come to a decision by that time. We’ll see. One fo the Sunday games is a Nats game, plus I’d get two Red Sox games, one Yankees game and a host of other good series games agains the Rays, Tigers and Rangers, among others. I don’t know. It’s a tempting offer, even though it won’t be Nationals baseball.
Monday Can of Corn: The Acceleration Effect (Updated)
**I’ve added a link to a column by Boz in tomorrow’s WaPo about the resignation below**
After a relatively quiet few days without a whole lot going on in Nationals camp save for some encouraging signs from the rotation on the field, Frowny-gate raised its head once again. After what, two weeks of speculating and reading about the whole mess down in the Dominican Republic and its implications for an ongoing FBI investigation, the hammer finally came down. Jim Bowden resigned this morning (Sunday), citing a desire not to be a distraction to the Nationals while maintaining his innocence. Not successor has been named, but I would imagine Assistant GM Mike Rizzo will at the very least be named interim GM until the FO decides where they go from here.
I titled this post The Acceleration Effect because that’s precisely the phenomenon that has typified Frowny-gate. From the moment it was discovered that Frowny was in fact not who he said he was, the wheels starting turning all around baseball and the media putting pieces together. Irregardless of whether one thinks that’s right or wrong, it is the process whereby embarrassments evolve into scandals and career-ending discoveries with increasing momentum until they can no longer be contained or satisfactorily denied. To date, nothing concrete has been shown linking Bowden with the illegal kickbacks that are at the heart of the FBI’s investigation. However, Bowden has too many links to other, dirty baseball executives for them all to be coincidence. Besides, coincidences are merely the mind’s way of trying to explain connections that appear random, but are in fact linked quite solidly.
So, in just a few weeks we’ve gone from the embarrassment of the Nationals’ system in the D.R. and the general anger felt in the FO for spending twice as much as necessary to sign a prospect that was not who he said he was, to the GM resigning amid rumors that he was involved in illegal kickbacks to Dominican recruits and their street bosses, allegations which are being investigated by the FBI. That’s a huge leap in severity, but the two are of course probably linked (the executives were either too incompetent or too crooked to find out Frowny’s real identity, which lead to a huge signing and probably a nice kickback for Frowny’s street boss manager.)
At any rate, we’ll see whether Bowden is truly linked in the federal investigation, and saying that the ownership pushed him out or that Stan pushed him out is just speculation. However, my gut feeling, based on nothing concrete, is that Stand and the Lerners are already thinking three or four moves ahead and see the writing on the wall. Even if Bowden was cleared of any wrongdoing tomorrow by the feds, his credibility as a responsible GM has been undermined too much now. Whether they can trust him or not, is impossible to tell from the outside. But certainly, they sat down with him yesterday and went through the scenarios, including the ones that ended in his firing and his resignation.
My hope now is that the Nats can move forward, whether with Mike Rizzo or somebody else, and keep making progress towards building a playoff-caliber team in seasons to come. My gut also tells me that this process would have taken longer with Bowden as GM, but again, that’s just my opinion.
Click here to read Thomas Boswell’s Reaction to Bowden’s Resignation
Click here to read the WaPo’s story of Bowden’s resignation.
Click here to read SI.com’s article on the resignation.
Busy Day
Today marked the Nats’ second ST game, this one at home at Space Coast (Spacecoast? That doesn’t seem right) Stadium. I tried to listen to it via the Internet on WFED’s site, but apparently you need to spend $15 to get MLB Gameday audio for that and I can just read the box score for free, thankyouverymuch.
Anyway, the Nats played a solid game against the Tigers and WON! What’s better, they did it with good pitching from young guns Colin Balester, Jordan Zimmerman and Terrell Young.
Check out the Recap from Yahoo! Sports. Thank goodness Yahoo taps into the power of the internet to give me these recaps! Some key points in my mind:
1. Balester, Zimmerman and Young combined for 6 IP, 0 H, 0 ER and 5 SO. Not bad!
2. Pete Orr was en fuego today, accounting for 50% of the team’s hits and 100% of its runs. Somebody came ready to earn a roster spot.
Aside from that, a quick update on the Frowny Gonzalez fallout. Jose Rijo, special assistant to the GM and head of the Nats’ Dominican operations, was fired today. Jose Baez, who ran the facility down there was also fired and the ENTIRE facility was shuttered in a few days thanks to assistant GM Mike Rizzo going down there and taking names. The Nats will move to a new facility that will probably not be 100% ramped up until 2010, but that’s the price you pay, I suppose. What I find most amazing is that pretty much all the staff was fired down there, but the Nats’ new facility will be operational tomorrow…don’t know how that works. 14 players will be released as well, although it’s unclear if that’s due to reduced capacity at the new facility or some other reason.
Check out the latest posts from Nationals Journal for more color on the Nats front office detonating a neutron bomb in their Dominican operation. Talk about lighting a fire. The worst thing you can do as an employee is require your boss to get involved in your day-to-day work, and that’s just what Bowden and Rijo have done. Stan is on this like flies on you know what. And now there are rumors that the Lerners are quietly looking at GM candidates to replace Bowden…however Boz has a column out today that I happen to agree with. Check it out here, as it’s a good quick read.
Tomorrow is a game against the Cardinals at their stadium in Jupiter, FL.
On a side note, Space Coast stadium is about 45 minutes away from where my grandparents live in Orlando, so I am now determined to take a long weekend next season to hit up 3 or 4 ST games since I can stay with my grandparents (don’t know if Annie will want to come along, but she’ll probably be willing to trade 4 days of nonstop baseball for 4 days of Florida sunshine after another dreary Baltimore winter!). Anyway, those long-term plans are in the works!
Mid-Week Thoughts
Today is the Nationals’ first Spring Training game (against the Astros at 1:05 PM). Unfortunately, I don’t think it’s being broadcast by WFED, as it seems they’re only covering the “home” games, which is understandable. At any rate, John Lannan gets the ball to start the game today, so it’ll be interesting to see how he handles his two innings of work. I could write about the latest updates on the Bowden investigation and the possibility he’ll be fired/resign, but as Boz says in the final episode of Ken Burns’s Baseball, “Life can’t be just about big events and heart surgery.”
Monday Can of Corn: Calling Shenanigans on Tim Brown
On the whole, I’ve never put a whole lot of weight in what sports columnists have said, both good and bad, about much of anything. To me, they have a sweet job and get to write about their opinions on sports. Some columnists are better than others and actually bother to do some investigating before writing, but with the dawn of the Internet, more columnists than not just write to produce content. At best, I think sports columnists provide context and an additional opinion, but not a whole lot of actual informational value (yes, with some notable exceptions).
However, I have to take particular exception with Yahoo’s Tim Brown recent column about the Nationals entitled, “Nationals Have to Find Some Direction.” I don’t deny that the last month has not been an example of flawless preparation for ST, but I disagree with most of Brown’s column. Let me take it one at a time here.
“As the Nats took their first steps of spring, contract negotiations with Ryan Zimmerman
were settled hours before a scheduled arbitration hearing, but not
before a report of strained relations between the club and its best
player.”
Nothing new or interesting here. Nationals fans have become accustomed to the constant rumors of a deteriorating relationship between the Nats and Zim. And we’re all accustomed to denials from both camps. Great reporting here, telling us something we’ve known since 2007.
As they first made their way to those back fields, their opening day starter from last year – Odalis Perez – was threatening a holdout.
The only reason Perez was last year’s opening day starter was because the rotation was already decaying from injuries, a theme that would permeate the 2008 season. This makes it sound like Perez was the ace in the rotation and was a critical part of the rotation from the moment he was signed to a $850K non-guaranteed minor league contract. The whole Perez fiasco is annoying, but I seriously doubt the whining of one minor league-bound pitcher is really keeping players up at night. What’s more, Brown says further down in the column that Perez’s holdout is “meaningless.” So meaningless that we need to intimate it’s actually really important and evidence that the team is in shambles. Wait…
Brown does raise the valid point that something needs to be done to address just how Frowny Gonzalez’s true identity and age were never discovered prior to the $1.4M signing bonus. Also, there’s the issue of why the Nats decided to pay 100% more than the nearest competitor was offering and why Rijo and Bowden didn’t do their homework, apparently. Rijo is on his way out, having been forced into taking an indefinite leave of absence. Bowden may not be too far behind. But again, for Nationals fans (who are presumably the main audience for this column), this is nothing new and has been better covered in the WaPo and by Nationals Journal. Nonetheless, the more I brood over Frowny-gate, the more I think some real changes might need to occur.
Amid that paperwork, the Nats are – or shortly will resume – shopping first baseman Nick Johnson, because they added Adam Dunn
to a roster already thick with outfielders and first basemen. There is
a sense the Nationals signed Dunn to appease a fan base that had its
heart set on Mark Teixeira,
but hey, the guy will work some counts and hit some home runs. Their
money. Though by June they might have wished they’d spent it on
pitching.
This is just writing for writing’s sake, I guess. First, the Nats are probably well aware that no team is going to look at NJ until they see he’s healthy and capable of producing like he did in 2006. So while I’m sure the Nats have talked about trading him, especially in light of getting Dunn, it’s a non-starter until ST games start and perhaps until the season really starts. I’m not sure what roster Brown is looking at, either, because “thick with first basemen” does not really describe the Nats. If you look at the 40 man roster, the only guys who could play first base with any skill would be Johnson or Dunn. Kory Casto could play 1B in a pinch, but that’s not likely to happen. So, the team has 2.5 first basemen…not exactly a glut. the outfielder abundance is probably a combination of Manny wanting more to work with rather than less, like last season. Also, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Nats use a few of those guys (Kearns, Casto, Milledge, etc) as trade fodder to beef up 2B and add some more pitching. And if someone wants to take NJ (like the A’s), the Nats will deal him for more pitching and work hard to make Dunn a serviceable 1B.
I think the only one who senses that Dunn was signed to appease the fans is Brown, probably because he doesn’t really know the Nationals that well, much less the fan base. Dunn was signed to add protection for Ryan Zimmerman and give the lineup a power lefthanded bat it lacked last season. That appeases the fans because we want to win more than 59 games.
And it’s either selective analysis (if we drastically expand the definition of analysis to include just writing a sentence because it sounds nice) or statistical ignorance that would cause Brown to ignore Dunn’s 40 homeruns in each of the last 5 seasons, not to mention hitting 100+ RBIs in four of the past five seasons, a career .381 slugging, .518 OBP and 130 OPS+. The guy also routinely draws 100+ walks each of the last five seasons. Oh, and he took a pay cut to sign with the Nats, which is more a sign of the economic times than any burning desire to play in DC, I admit, but is probably a good value for the money spent. I would imagine that Brown would find something else to bemoan had the Nats not signed Dunn and gotten some more pitching instead, as he prescribed. Or if they’d signed Texeira, Tim might have said that same thing…”their money.” Nice one, Tim!
But, you know, there’s still a question of whom they want to be. Is
this the club that drags along the issues of Perez, Young and Elijah Dukes? Does it need that?
Again, I agree with Brown on Perez. The Nats just need to cut him and let him act like a brat with another club. However, dragging along the issues of their players is kinda what teams have to do unless they find 40 virgin players in the middle of the jungle who love everyone and have never had a problem in their idyllic lives. I’d like to see that team, but I think every club has issues because they’re made up of human beings, and we all have issues. Especially sports writers. I agree that the Nats need to part ways with Da Meat Hook soon. Dukes, however, could be truly great, if the Nats can help him put his turbulent past behind him.
Do the Nats want to “drag” Dukes’ issues along with them? YES. Help the kid out, give him some guidance and he could turn into one of the great players of his generation. It could also not work, but nobody ever won a World Series without taking some calculated risks.
Well, management could sit around and try to figure that out. Or, it
could release Perez and tend to the pitchers in camp, the ones who
showed up on time and went to work. There’s still value in that, right?
You’re right, Tim. I’m sure nobody is doing anything with the pitchers already in camp and they’re just sitting in their hotel rooms eating room service because all the pitching coaches are on the phone with Perez trying to coax him to camp. They probably don’t even know what pitchers have shown up! Oh my God!
But you’re right. Manny and his staff probably haven’t been talking to and watching their main rotation pitchers since they arrived on Saturday…the ST rotation probably isn’t even set yet…wait a second.
Bottom line: If you’re going to write about a team, make sure you’ve actually studied the team longer than since you arrived at Spring Training over the weekend and did a Google search to “get up to speed” on what’s gone on in the offseason. Otherwise you might end up writing a woefully bad column for Yahoo Sports.
The Shifting Ground of Negotiations
Well, thankfully Ryan Zimmerman and the Nats reached a one-year deal yesterday, avoiding arbitration and letting the Nats move on to focus the whole Smiley Gonzalez fiasco. At least that is largely out of their hands now, as MLB and the FBI will probably lead the investigation now. Although I would expect the Nats to do some focused investigating of their own behind closed doors and away from the constant glare of fans.
Anyway, Boz has an online only column on the WaPo website today about Zim’s signing, and it’s almost like he’s getting in my head and writing columns based on what I’m thinking…if I could prove that, it’d be a nice second stream of income! At any rate, Boz points out that the recession has made negotiations between players and clubs very different from what they were a year ago. Adam Dunn and Pat Burrell are prime examples of that, as both took pay cuts to sign deals that can be considered lucrative when viewed relative to the economic landscape of today. Boz points out that probably the biggest obstacle to the Nats and Zim signing a long-term deal rather than a one-year placeholder was Nick Markakis’ monster 6-year $66M deal struck with the Orioles earlier in the offseason. That deal set a precadent for Zim’s pricetag that the Nats were probably unwilling to meet from the start.
However, in the long run, that could work in both sides’ favor, although the outcomes are mutually exclusive. In scenario 1, Zim plays well and stays healthy and has a 2006-07-like season thanks in large part to a much-improved lineup with more protection for him and more offensive production on the whole. That makes him better able to demand a higher price from the Nats as they negotiate a long-term deal this season. It also makes it more difficult for the Nats to turn him away, especially if this team performs much better than the media is projecting. This scenario obviously favors Zim.
Scenario 2 is that Zim’s shoulder still gives him trouble and he has a year similar to last season. The Nats have more wiggle room here in terms of getting a more reasonable (in their minds) price to lock Zim up for 6 years. However, any season where Zim doesn’t play well usually means the team doesn’t play as well, which could entice Zim not to return to the bargaining table at all and seek a new team. This scenario just barely favors the Nats, although it has more risks.
Check out Boz’s column here.
One Step Forward and Two Steps Back
That’s how I’ve felt as a Nationals fan since the team came to DC back in 2004. It seems that the team makes some progress but then something comes along and sets them backwards. This whole Smiley Gonzalez fiasco is the latest setback. And it comes right in the middle of two important signings that wrapped up the off-season just in time for ST’s first games next week.
Git ‘Er Done
Figures that the Nationals would wait until the last possible minute to sign Zim and avoid arbitration. Zimmerman signed a one year $3.325M deal with incentives. It’s almost exactly halfway between what Zimmerman was asking ($3.9M) and what the Nationals were offering ($2.75M) so that’s a pretty good resolution for a year.
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