It’s been a crazy week and I completely failed at posting this week’s Can of Corn thanks in part to Sunday getting away from me. Then I had intended to post on Monday morning, but I woke up feeling like I was getting sick and sure enough, by the end of the day, I was sick. So the last few days have been just trying to get through a day of work and then coming home and sitting on the couch, hoping not to get any sicker. Truth be told, this cold isn’t as bad as last year’s, when I had to stay home from work for a day I was so sick. 

Anyway, the Caribbean Series has started and I’m finally able to watch some live baseball for the first time in several months. I promise with all my stuffed up heart to post this Monday’s Can of Corn (on Sunday night!), which will be about the Caribbean Series. 

For now, my main concern is with the Nationals signing a key free agent before Spring Training! Like most Nats fans, I’ve watched with growing worry as day after day has gone by without the Nats making their play for Adam Dunn or Orlando Hudson (or both!). With Spring Training less than two weeks away, it’s getting down to the wire here and I’m torn over which way I think this is going to end. First, my cynical side:

After some of the signings of the past, or really the LACK of signings in the past, I worry that the Nationals are too willing to play the waiting game with players. There is a theory going around baseball that the market for free agents is depressed thanks to the economy and teams not wanting to blow lots of cash on contracts that might be overpriced. I have to say that while this probably has something to do with it, I can’t believe that teams are holding back based solely on economics. There has to be a large dose of gamesmanship involved here. Teams know that there are an unusually large number of free agents still out there and that the market is pretty illiquid due to the lack of signings overall. This is one of the reasons that Dunn hasn’t settled with a team yet: he’s put a price on himself but there’s no way that he, nor interested teams, really can price him yet because larger, more liquid assets (Manny Ramirez) have yet to be valued themselves. 

Once Manny signs for whatever gazillion dollar contract he gets, you’ll see maybe one or two other outfielders sign (maybe Dunn will be in this group). Until a major signing happens, the market will remain frozen (does this sound familiar to anyone?) and buyers won’t want to spend cash on an asset that might actually be worth 20% less than what they paid for it. I think this is part of the reasoning behind the Nats not signing a lot of people. The flip side, though, is that the longer players go without signing a deal they think they’re worth, the more doubt creeps into their heads and their agents’ heads, which increases the chances of prices coming down. The fear that Manny or some other market maker signs for markedly less than expected could be enough to lower prices on other players like Adam Dunn. 

However, there’s only so long a team can wait before a player will sign and I think we have to be getting close to that point with the Nationals’ potential signings. I worry that the Lerners will be so focused on getting the best deal that they’ll miss out on making any progress whatsoever. You have to spend money to make money and while knowing how and where to spend your money is critical, knowing when to spend it and being comfortable with spending it are also important. 

Now the optimistic side of me: 

This has been an unusually slow Winter signing season and dozens of free agents remain on the market to be acquired. It’s good news that other teams have also been slow to acquire players (for example, the Angles have signed fewer players than the Nats) and not for lack of finances. The longer Manny waits to get a contract, the better chances that either he takes the Dodgers’ offer (even though he rejected it once already) or he gets a slightly better deal from the Dodgers in the next 10 days. However, the longer he stays out on the market, the cheaper other players may become as they worry about their job prospects come April. 

Moreover, I think the Nats have not been sitting on their hands all this time, but have probably been in contact with agents and players to gauge sentiment and numbers to be ready when their targets are prepared to deal. I find it hard to believe that the Nats have given up on acquiring any more players this season and are instead focused on waiting for the right time to hard sell a player like Dunn or Hudson (OR BOTH!) on coming to Washington and being part of The Plan. I have faith that Stan knows what he’s doing and exerts enough influence over the organization to influence the Lerners to induce them to shell out the cash, while preventing future FLop signings from undermining The Plan. 

Right now, I give odds of 50:50 on whether my cynical side or faithful side prevails, however…which might actually mean I’m 60:40 in favor of pessimism at this point when you think about it.